Odds Against Tomorrow (2013) is a work of speculative fiction by author Nathaniel Rich. Rich, the winner of awards from the Society of Environmental Journalists and the American Institute of Physics, received the 2017 Emily Clark Balch Prize for Fiction and the Inaugural New Orleans Library Society Fiction Award. He has published numerous short stories and novels, as well as nonfiction works about environmental science. Though fictional, Odds Against Tomorrow shares these environmental themes, examining the nature of fear and the reclamation of the natural world after New York City is hit by a Category 4 hurricane.

This study guide refers to the 2014 Picador edition of Odds Against Tomorrow.

Content Warning: This novel contains themes of existential dread, disaster and its aftermath, and emotional and psychological distress.

Plot Summary

A college acquaintance introduces Mitchell Zukor, a futurist in New York City, as an obsessive genius concerned with the statistics surrounding disasters and catastrophes. Years after they attended school together, Mitchell accurately predicted a hurricane that devastated New York.

At college, Mitchell is misunderstood and has quirky qualities that make it hard for others to socialize with him. As Mitchell watches live footage of an earthquake destroying Seattle, he notices another classmate, Elsa Bruner, slumped over in her seat; he knows Elsa has Brugada syndrome, which means her heart could stop at any moment. Mitchell calls the paramedics and saves her.

Mitchell graduates and takes a job in New York City for a company called Fitzsimmons Sherman. Mitchell is undervalued but works tirelessly to calculate the value, in dollars, of each employee’s life while pondering the value of his own. Mitchell receives an unexpected postcard from Elsa. Although unsure of her intentions, Mitchell begins a correspondence with her.

While working on his calculations, Mitchell is scouted by another company called FutureWorld. The founder of FutureWorld, Alec Charnoble, exploits the fear surrounding the Seattle earthquake. Survivors were suing companies in Seattle for insurance money, causing the companies to go bankrupt. Charnoble found a clause in the statements about disaster stipulating that if the company makes a serious effort to protect the building and occupants, it will not be responsible for insurance claims. FutureWorld provides those precautionary measures by predicting possible disasters and writing escape and rescue plans for each potential catastrophe. When Charnoble offers his services to Fitzsimmons Sherman, he recognizes Mitchell’s talent and pursues him for FutureWorld.

When Mitchell is denied a job in Fitzsimmons Sherman’s Risk department, he quits and accepts the offer from FutureWorld. There, Mitchell sells his own anxieties and fears to clients, predicting everything from earthquakes to wars with China. A world of information opens up to Mitchell, and he uses his own logic to combat his continued fears about unexpected disaster. Nevertheless, he remains anxious, and a continued drought in New York heightens his fears.

Mitchell continues to send letters to Elsa, who answers his questions about fear and death. Mitchell cannot understand how Elsa copes with Brugada or why she chooses to live at Ticonderoga, a homesteading community far from city hospitals. Mitchell realizes one day that he has not heard from Elsa in a few weeks. He calls Camp Ticonderoga, and Elsa’s boyfriend tells him that she has been in a coma since her heart stopped. Mitchell has a violent emotional reaction to this news, which bothers Charnoble. Mitchell calls the hospital every day to check on Elsa.

FutureWorld grows and employs another futurist, Jane Eppler. Mitchell teaches Jane the business of fear, and she is an eager student. As Mitchell’s wealth grows, he feels compelled to indulge in something expensive and buys a $29,000 piece of artwork from a museum: The Psycho Canoe is a multicolored canoe with oars made of reclaimed items.

A storm hits and the people of New York celebrate the end of the drought by dancing in the rain. Mitchell, noticing the water pooling on the dry earth instead of being absorbed, realizes that too much rain could cause a catastrophe. Based on a study of weather patterns, Mitchell predicts that a hurricane will devastate New York City. Hurricane Tammy soon heads for the city, but weather reporters focus on the relief that the rain will bring and do not warn people about possible flooding. In a meeting with a large perfume company, Mitchell tries to convince board members that the storm will cost them everything, possibly even their lives. He urges the CEO to evacuate the company’s factories. The CEO is unimpressed. As the reality of the storm fully registers with Mitchell, he tells the CEO and board that there is no real reason to worry, works himself into a frenzy, and faints. His obvious fear convinces the board to evacuate.

Mitchell convinces many other companies to evacuate, but Charnoble insists FutureWorld employees keep working. Jane calls Mitchell as the storm becomes violent and admits she is scared. They decide to wait out the storm in Mitchell’s apartment. Mitchell uses his knowledge of disasters to keep them safe as the city is destroyed, and the two have sex. After the hurricane passes, Mitchell and Jane worry they may starve before being rescued. Mitchell convinces Jane to escape with him in the Psycho Canoe. They pass dead animals and people in the flooded streets and see survivors engaging in violence. After days of canoeing, Mitchell and Jane join masses of refugees moving away from the devastation. They quit FutureWorld, much to Charnoble’s dismay, and Jane pitches the idea for a new company: Future Days. This company will provide all the same services, banking on the fact that Mitchell is now a media sensation after predicting the hurricane. She arranges interviews and speaks on Mitchell’s behalf.

Mitchell learns Elsa was moved from the hospital to Camp Ticonderoga and convinces Jane to travel with him to check on her. The camp is flooded with refugees seeking shelter in exchange for work, and when Mitchell and Jane arrive, the cabins are ablaze and the refugees are fighting each other. Mitchell, believing Elsa is in one of the burning cabins, charges in to look for her. The cabin is empty, but Mitchell inhales smoke and is burned. Jane charges into the fire and pulls him out. She takes him back to New York City. Mitchell believes that Elsa is dead.

Mitchell and Jane agree that their relationship is platonic but exchange intimate touches and kind words. They share a FEMA trailer on Randall Island. There is no clear timeframe for returning to Manhattan, and the refugees on the island are impatient to go home. Mitchell teams up with a man named Hank Cho, who leads Jane and Mitchell to the Flatlands, which has been completely devastated by the storm. Mitchell decides to homestead and become self-sufficient. Since Jane wants to return to the city and run Future Days, she and Mitchell part ways.

Mitchell throws himself into creating a habitable space for himself and cultivating farmland. He uses what he has available to him, and his logic helps him become self-sufficient. He walls off his farmland with reclaimed items from the storm and cuts himself off from other people. Jane supports Mitchell’s efforts by bringing him supplies and books. She tells Mitchell that Elsa Bruner is trying to contact him. Elsa has a new internal defibrillator and is attending law school. Mitchell does not believe her. Jane, now a successful businesswoman, feels compelled to stay with Mitchell and live an anxiety-free, self-sufficient life. The feeling is overwhelming but fleeting, and she returns to the city.