The narrator explains the difficulty of trying to apply a scientific analysis to history. People may try to understand history by examining the small constituent details, just as they understand a scientific theory by studying formulae, numbers, and data. However, the individual components people examine when studying history are almost always incorrect. The great men, the big events, and the most potent crises are actually the result of much smaller, harder to distinguish causes. People’s individual decisions combine to have a profound effect on history. The narrator believes that history must be understood through the lives of individual people rather than the singular figures that are the most visible.

Napoleon’s failed invasion of Russia would have been hard to predict. Napoleon’s huge army, assembled from a union of 12 different countries, pursues the Russians into Russia. Napoleon sets his sights on Moscow, and his army destroys everything in its path, leaving hundreds of miles of countryside ruined and the local people starving. The Russians retreat toward Moscow, each mile making them hate their enemy even more, falling back until they stand their ground at Borodino. The French advance toward Moscow and occupy the city for five weeks while the Russians fall back even further.